The Paradigmatic Profile of Futures Studies: From Reading to Representation of Integral Futures

Document Type : علمی - پژوهشی

Authors

1 Ph.D. in Futures Studies, Professor and Researcher

2 Full Professor of Political Science, Shahed University

Abstract

Futures studies is now present in scientific spheres as an independent and structured field of study and forms the basis of strategic studies and investigations. Futures studies is the science of intelligent analysis, exploration, designing and building of future and therefore is rooted in human prudence system and emphasizes the conscious and proactive engineering, creation and restructuring of future. Futures studies, and the key issue of future discovery and shaping, is conducted through basic fundamentals, principles and rules which are reflected on cogent theoretical and conceptual frameworks called paradigms. These paradigms manage the organization of observations, framing of perceptions and orientation of actions. Having based on a descriptive-analytical methodology, the present paper explains the concept and logic of paradigms, and then reads the conventional paradigms of futures studies, namely positivist, evolutionary and critical paradigms. Finally, the emerging paradigm of integral futures is mapped and processed. The paradigmatic shift and transition led to the emergence of the integral futures denotes the capacity development of futures studies in problem-tackling and its evolution into a meta-natural field of study.

Keywords


  1. ایمان، محمدتقی (1387)، «ارزیابی پارادایمی انسان به‌عنوان عنصر اساسی در طراحی پارادایم الهی»، فصلنامه روششناسی علوم انسانی، سال چهاردهم، شماره 54، ص25−46.
  2. حسنی، سیدحمیدرضا و مهدی علی‎پور (1389)، «درنگی در معناشناسی و ماهیت‎شناسی تحلیلی واژه پارادایم»، فصلنامه روششناسی علوم انسانی، سال شانزدهم، شماره 63، ص77−96.
  3. 3.    فاتح‎راد، مهدی؛ محمدرضا جلیلوند؛ محمدمهدی مولایی؛ سعید سمیعی و لیلا نصرالهی وسطی (1392)، «مختصات روش‎شناختی فرارشته آینده‎پژوهی به‌مثابه یک فراپارادایم یک‎پارچه»، فصلنامه مطالعات میانرشتهای در علوم انسانی، دوره ششم، شماره 1، ص135−161.
    1. Bell, W. (2003), Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era.Volume 1: History, Purposes, and Knowledge. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction.
    2. Bryman, A. (1988), Quantity and Quality in Social Research. London: Allen & Unwin.
    3. Collins, T & Hines, A. (2010), “The Evolution of Integral Futures: a Status Update”, World Future Review, June−July: 5−16.
    4. Cornish, E. (2004), Futuring: the Exploration of the Future. USA: World Future Society.
    5. Donmoyer, R. (2008), “Paradigm. In Lisa M. Given (Ed.)”, The Encyclopedia of Qualitative Research Methods (pp.591−595),Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications.
    6. Esbjorn-Hargens, S. (2009), “An Overview of Integral Theory: An All-Inclusive Framework for the 21st Century. Integral Institute”, Resource Paper, No.1:1−24.
    7. Fletcher, G. (1981), “The Case against a Science of Futurology”, World Futures Society Bulletin, 15(3): 27−32.
    8. Habegger, B. (2010), “Strategic Foresight in Public Policy: Reviewing the Experiences of the UK, Singapore, and the Netherlands”, Futures, 42: 49−58.
    9. Hideg, E. (2002), “Implications of Two New Paradigms for Futures Studies”, Futures, 34: 283−294.
    10. Hideg, E. (2013), “Integral Futures Based on the Paradigm Approach”, Futures, 45: 506−515.
    11. Inayatullah, S. (2008), “Six Pillars: Futures Thinking for Transforming”, Foresight, 10(1): 4−21.
    12. Inayatullah, S. (2013), “Futures Studies: Theories and Methods”, In Fernando G. Junquera (Ed.), There's a Future: Visions for a Better World (pp. 36−66), Madrid: BBVA.
    13. Kuhn, S. T. (1970). The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (2nd Ed.), Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
    14. Morgan, D. (2007), “Paradigms Lost and Pragmatism Regained: Methodological Implications of Combining Qualitative and Quantitative Methods”, Journal of Mixed Methods Research, 1(1), 48−76.
    15. Ritzer, G. (1975), Sociology: A Multi-Paradigm Science, Boston: Allyn & Bacon, Inc.
    16. Scott, J. & Marshall, G. (2009), Oxford Dictionary of Sociology. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
    17. Slaughter, R. M. (2002), “Futures Studies as a Civilizational Catalyst”, Futures, 34: 349−363.
    18. Slaughter, R. A. (2008), “What Difference Does ‘Integral’ Make? ”, Futures, 40, 120−137.
    19. Voros, J. (2008), “Integral Futures: An Approach to Futures Inquiry”, Futures, 40:190−201.
    20. Ziauddin, S. (2013), Future: All that Matters. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.