resenting a Conceptual Framework for Significance in Futures Studies; Implications of Fuzzy Set Theory for Futures Studies

Extended Abstract
 
Introduction and Objectives: Futures studies, as an interdisciplinary field within the social sciences, require foundational research to sustain and deepen their development, drawing on philosophical, ideological, and theoretical insights from emerging paradigms. This study aims to propose a conceptual framework for the applicability of futures studies, thereby facilitating similar research efforts. In doing so, it helps scholars and researchers save time while encouraging greater engagement with such inquiries, ultimately enhancing the dynamism and flexibility of futures studies. Additionally, to implement this framework, the theoretical implications of fuzzy set theory for futures studies are examined. This study represents the first comprehensive and concise articulation of the conceptual framework for the applicability of futures studies. Moreover, no prior research has specifically explored the applications, guidelines, or implications of fuzzy set theory within the context of futures studies.
Like all other scientific disciplines, futures studies inherit their ontology from a broader scientific paradigm. As a distinct field, it also possesses its own epistemology and methodology. Consequently, the applicability framework operates on at least these three levels. During the research process, it became evident that futures studies rely on certain assumptions; without these, the conceptual framework would appear incomplete. Therefore, these assumptions are also explored.
Method: This research is applied and qualitative in nature. Data were collected using a documentary approach, primarily from articles and books available in reputable scientific databases through digital resources. The data are qualitative, and their primary analytical method is thematic analysis, conducted within the methodological framework of implication research. Implication research involves establishing an academic connection between the source of implications and their destination, based on an informed conjecture about the guidance the source provides for the target domain. The methodology of implication research follows a sequential process aimed at bridging two distinct knowledge domains, facilitating the extraction of accurate and relevant implications for the target field. The research design in implication studies can be broadly categorized into systematic and emergent approaches. In the systematic approach, the conceptual framework for the applicability of the target field is carefully designed at the outset. Subsequently, relevant implications are identified from the contributions of the source domain for each element of that framework (Danaeefard, 2016).
Discussion and Conclusions: A comprehensive review of reputable sources reveals that the most robust theoretical foundation for futures studies is critical realism. From this perspective, the ontology of futures studies posits that existing realities are understandable but have been shaped over time by economic, political, social, cultural, ethnic, and gender-related factors. These realities manifest as structures that have taken on a concrete form, often appearing as immutable natural truths.
Furthermore, in the epistemology of futures studies, plausibility replaces the certainty typically associated with epistemic propositions. Since the future is shaped by both the past and the present, futurists cannot study the future without considering these two temporal dimensions. While evidence exists for the past and present, no such evidence is available for the future. Therefore, futurists can use critical realism to analyze the past and present in order to construct future-oriented propositions. When making forecasts, epistemic statements must be grounded in arguments supported by both formal and informal evidence. Given that the future has not yet materialized, and the truth-value of statements about it remains undetermined, the key criterion becomes the plausibility of those statements. Acknowledging the vital role of background knowledge in generating future-oriented insights, these propositions must consider the social nature and processes involved in the production of knowledge.
Many of the methods employed in futures studies have been adapted from other scientific disciplines, a common practice due to the interdisciplinary nature of the field. However, there are also methods specific to futures studies, including: (1) Ethnographic Futures Research, (2) Backcasting, (3) Environmental Scanning, (4) Morphological Analysis, (5) Causal Layered Analysis, (6) Visioning, (7) Roadmapping, (8) Robust Decision-Making, (9) Futures Wheel, (10) Delphi Method, (11) Scenario Planning, (12) Weak Signals, and (13) Wild Cards.
Futures studies are built on a range of assumptions, principles, and foundational ideas. While some of these assumptions are not exclusive to the field, they are essential to its structure and cannot easily be dismissed. Among all the principles and assumptions, the list proposed by Bell (2003) in his book is the most comprehensive. No additional assumptions were found in other sources that were not already included in Bell’s framework. According to Bell, the key assumptions of futures studies include: (1) The Meaning of Time, (2) The Possible Singularity of the Future, (3) Futures Thinking and Action, (4) The Most Useful Knowledge, (5) Future Facts (?), (6) An Open Future, (7) Humans Make Themselves, (8) Interdependence and Holism, (9) Better Futures, (10) People and Their Projects, (11) Society as Expectation and Decision, and (12) The Existence and Knowledge of External Reality (Bell, 2003).
The theoretical implications of fuzzy set theory for futures studies were examined, focusing specifically on its methodological aspects, rather than its ontological, epistemological, or assumption-based dimensions. Within this methodological context, linguistic term processing emerged as the most significant contribution, applicable across all methods. Fuzzy classification was ranked second in importance, relevant to six methods, while the fuzzy inference system was the third and final contribution, applicable solely to robust decision-making and scenario planning.
To further enhance the dynamism of the futures studies discipline, future research should explore the implications of emerging theories, sciences, or technologies. Investigating these areas could contribute to enriching this framework and reinforcing its validity for practitioners.
Additionally, it is recommended that experts from other disciplines who are interested in futures studies use the framework presented in this article to identify the implications of their specialized fields for the discipline. This approach will not only ensure the continued growth of futures studies but also extend the applicability of their own fields, given the vast scope of this interdisciplinary area.
Acknowledgement: The authors wish to express their sincere gratitude to the editorial team of the Methodology of Social Sciences and Humanities Journal and the distinguished reviewers for their invaluable feedback, which played a crucial role in enhancing the quality of this article.